Thread · Media Effectiveness Path

The media ran. Did it work, and where does the next euro go?

From how long a burst keeps working to where the money should sit next quarter. This is the path that ends in a reallocation, not in a report. The path runs Lag & Carryover, Saturation Curves, Contribution & Driver Decomposition, Budget Optimization, Geo / Segment MMM.

Here, one case per post, in reading order: where each step changed a decision, and where the file could not answer.

Adstock and the outdoor burst that was judged on the wrong week

Posted by tea on in Lag & Carryover · Media Effectiveness Path · Where it helps

Home-furnishing retailer, 38 stores in northern Italy, asking whether a spring outdoor and radio burst had failed.

A composite case, built from the kind of file we see most weeks. A home-furnishing retailer with 38 stores across northern Italy, roughly €1.9M of revenue in an ordinary week, and a marketing team that had just been told its spring burst did not work.

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Why flat always-on spend makes carryover impossible to measure

Posted by tea on in Lag & Carryover · Media Effectiveness Path · Where it does not

Online home-insurance broker in Spain, always-on paid social at about €38k a week, asking what an August pause would cost.

A composite case, built from the kind of file we see most weeks. An online home-insurance broker in Spain, selling direct, with paid social as its largest channel. Spend had sat at about €38k a week for seventy weeks. Leads, meaning quote requests, ran at around 4,200 a week.

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