Econometrics for marketing decisions, one case at a time.
UK mattress brand, about £38M a year, asking whether a 30% share of voice meant it could cut £1M of media.
A composite case, built from files we see more often than we would like: a UK mattress brand selling mostly direct, about £38M of annual revenue, in a category of five brands where it holds roughly 17% of value share.
Filed under Competitive Pressure | Competitive Path | Permalink
Move a quarter of the budget from Meta to Google. Same total spend. What happens?
This is the answer, and the answer is almost nothing.
Filed under Scenario Simulation | Permalink
Italian fresh-pasta producer, 104 weeks of cases shipped, one key account lost mid-way, asked for next year's business-as-usual volume.
A composite case, built from the kind of file we see most weeks. A fresh-pasta producer in Emilia, about 140 people, shipping to supermarket chains in Italy and Austria. One of those chains, a discounter, moved its fresh pasta to private label and took its last delivery in mid-December 2025. It had been about 18% of volume.
Filed under Baseline Forecast | Planning Path | Permalink
The dearest GRP works the least.
Eight TV dayparts from a €2M plan, plotted over two years. Cost per GRP on the horizontal axis, on a log scale because the prices span a factor of seventeen. What each euro gave back on the vertical. The size of each bubble is how many GRPs that slot actually buys inside the plan.
Filed under Budget Optimization | Permalink
Household-goods maker, one washing-up liquid SKU in Italian grocery, asking whether a 5% list-price rise would cost volume.
A composite case, built from the kind of file we see most weeks. A mid-sized household-goods maker, and its biggest line: a one-litre washing-up liquid sold through Italian grocery, about 42,000 bottles a week at €3.49 on the shelf. Around €7.6M of revenue a year from one SKU, so every decimal on its price is a meeting.
Filed under Price Elasticity | Pricing & Promo Path | Permalink
Two competitors on the shelf next to you. One of them is a rival. The other one just sells nearby, and this chart is how you tell them apart.
Competitor A: cross-elasticity 0.49, with a 95% interval from 0.37 to 0.61. When their price goes up 1%, your volume goes up about half a percent. That is a substitute, and it is the brand you are actually competing with.
Filed under Cross-Elasticity | Permalink
Coffee subscription business in the Netherlands and Belgium, 36 months of active subscribers, asked whether doubling campaign spend doubles growth.
A composite case, built from the kind of file we see most weeks. A coffee subscription business selling in the Netherlands and Belgium, around 31,000 active subscribers, a monthly box, and a first year of paid campaigns behind it.
Filed under Trend Analysis | Discovery Path | Permalink
Six years of rate discounts against shipped volume at a logistics operator. The curve is what the discount buys.
The semi-elasticity is 0.69. Each ten points of discount moves about 7% more volume. R² is 0.96, so the relationship is not in doubt: the discount works.
Filed under Promo Elasticity | Permalink
Online home-insurance broker in Spain, always-on paid social at about €38k a week, asking what an August pause would cost.
A composite case, built from the kind of file we see most weeks. An online home-insurance broker in Spain, selling direct, with paid social as its largest channel. Spend had sat at about €38k a week for seventy weeks. Leads, meaning quote requests, ran at around 4,200 a week.
Filed under Lag & Carryover | Media Effectiveness Path | Permalink
Six years of price against volume for a grocery product. Every grey dot is a week. The line is what the model thinks the relationship is.
The elasticity is -1.52, with a 95% interval from -1.85 to -1.18.
Filed under Price Elasticity | Permalink