Thread · Planning Path

What does next year look like if we do nothing?

The business-as-usual number, built well enough to defend in a budget meeting, and then bent by the decisions you are actually considering. The path runs Baseline Forecast, Time Series (ARIMA), Seasonality & Event Impact, Scenario Simulation.

Here, one case per post, in reading order: where each step changed a decision, and where the file could not answer.

A baseline forecast for the budget: 3% of the 8% was already coming

Posted by tea on in Baseline Forecast · Planning Path · Where it helps

German and Austrian homeware retailer, €48M revenue, 156 weeks of sales, asked how much of an 8% target the new plan had to earn.

A composite case, built from the kind of file we see most weeks. A homeware and kitchenware retailer with 22 stores in Germany and Austria and a webshop that does a little over a quarter of revenue. The fiscal year runs October to September. FY26 closed at €48.0M.

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When the past is not a baseline: forecasting after a lost account

Posted by tea on in Baseline Forecast · Planning Path · Where it does not

Italian fresh-pasta producer, 104 weeks of cases shipped, one key account lost mid-way, asked for next year's business-as-usual volume.

A composite case, built from the kind of file we see most weeks. A fresh-pasta producer in Emilia, about 140 people, shipping to supermarket chains in Italy and Austria. One of those chains, a discounter, moved its fresh pasta to private label and took its last delivery in mid-December 2025. It had been about 18% of volume.

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