Archive for the category

Baseline Forecast

What the next weeks look like with nothing new in them: the business-as-usual number a plan should be measured against, and the cases where the past is not a baseline at all.

A step of the Planning Path.

When the past is not a baseline: forecasting after a lost account

Posted by tea on in Baseline Forecast · Planning Path · Where it does not

Italian fresh-pasta producer, 104 weeks of cases shipped, one key account lost mid-way, asked for next year's business-as-usual volume.

A composite case, built from the kind of file we see most weeks. A fresh-pasta producer in Emilia, about 140 people, shipping to supermarket chains in Italy and Austria. One of those chains, a discounter, moved its fresh pasta to private label and took its last delivery in mid-December 2025. It had been about 18% of volume.

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A baseline forecast for the budget: 3% of the 8% was already coming

Posted by tea on in Baseline Forecast · Planning Path · Where it helps

German and Austrian homeware retailer, €48M revenue, 156 weeks of sales, asked how much of an 8% target the new plan had to earn.

A composite case, built from the kind of file we see most weeks. A homeware and kitchenware retailer with 22 stores in Germany and Austria and a webshop that does a little over a quarter of revenue. The fiscal year runs October to September. FY26 closed at €48.0M.

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Baseline forecast: the business-as-usual benchmark for campaigns

Posted by tea on in Baseline Forecast

Three years of daily revenue from a grocery retailer, and four weeks projected forward with nothing in them.

No campaign. No promotion. No new store. The dashed line is what arrives if every marketing person takes the month off.

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