Archive for the category

Trend Analysis

The structural slope of a series, with its confidence band, read before anything else gets credit for growth. Where a trend line helps, and where it averages two different businesses into one.

A step of the Discovery Path.

Subscription growth from marketing, or a slope already there

Posted by tea on in Trend Analysis · Discovery Path · Where it helps

Coffee subscription business in the Netherlands and Belgium, 36 months of active subscribers, asked whether doubling campaign spend doubles growth.

A composite case, built from the kind of file we see most weeks. A coffee subscription business selling in the Netherlands and Belgium, around 31,000 active subscribers, a monthly box, and a first year of paid campaigns behind it.

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Trend analysis with a structural break, and why one line lies

Posted by tea on in Trend Analysis · Discovery Path · Where it does not

UK premium crisps brand, 78 weeks of retail units, asked whether next year can be planned on its growth rate.

A composite case, built from the kind of file we see most weeks. A premium crisps brand in the UK, about £2.5M a year at retail, with a small commercial team and a forecast due for the annual plan.

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Trend analysis: separating structural growth from marketing

Posted by tea on in Trend Analysis

Five years of import volume at a logistics operator. The thin line is what happened. The straight one is what a regression says was always going to happen.

The slope is +67 TEU a month. Across the 59 months in the file that is the distance between 8,154 and 11,552 containers, and not one of them was bought.

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