Econometrics for marketing decisions, one case at a time.
Thread · Discovery Path
You have a number that went up or down and five theories about why. Four analyses, in the only order that does not let one driver take credit for another. The path runs Trend Analysis, Seasonality & Event Impact, Contribution & Driver Decomposition, Base vs Incremental.
Here, one case per post, in reading order: where each step changed a decision, and where the file could not answer.
UK premium crisps brand, 78 weeks of retail units, asked whether next year can be planned on its growth rate.
A composite case, built from the kind of file we see most weeks. A premium crisps brand in the UK, about £2.5M a year at retail, with a small commercial team and a forecast due for the annual plan.
Filed under Trend Analysis | Discovery Path | Permalink
Coffee subscription business in the Netherlands and Belgium, 36 months of active subscribers, asked whether doubling campaign spend doubles growth.
A composite case, built from the kind of file we see most weeks. A coffee subscription business selling in the Netherlands and Belgium, around 31,000 active subscribers, a monthly box, and a first year of paid campaigns behind it.
Filed under Trend Analysis | Discovery Path | Permalink